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Key Insights on the Upcoming U.S. Elections: A Conversation with David Simas

SpeakerS:

Matthew Swift, Co-Founder, President & CEO, Concordia
David Simas, Managing Director, Emerson Collective

“Just as soon as you think you're in the new normal, the normal changes. — Whatever it is today, tomorrow's gonna be different. Try to get ahead of it and anticipate in some way.” David Simas

Key takeaways:

  • Data-Driven politics: Data analysis is becoming increasingly integral in understanding voter behavior and shaping political campaigns. 
  • Uncertainty in election outcomes: Despite advancements in polling and data analysis, the 2024 U.S. elections remain unpredictable. Small shifts in voter preferences in key battleground states could determine the outcome.
  • Impact of social media on voting behavior: Social media consumption, has surged, with 18 to 25-year-olds now spending nearly three hours daily platforms. Creating a new landscape where voters consume highly personalized content, influencing their political perspectives.
  • Media fragmentation: The growing fragmentation of media consumption is leading to a situation where voters are consuming politically tailored content based on their interests, creating “echo chambers.” This trend is exacerbated by platforms like TikTok, which increasingly personalize news delivery, making it harder to reach a broad, unified audience.
  • Future of gerrymandering: Data has made gerrymandering more precise, creating districts that ensure a near-even split between parties. This has led to continuous political equilibrium and intensified partisan fighting. Structural reforms, such as in Alaska, may break this cycle.
  • Uncertainty ahead: The 2024 elections are just a preview of what may come in future elections. With advances in artificial intelligence, media segmentation, and political dynamics, future elections could become even more complex.

Action items:

  • Stay informed on data trends: Political analysts, media organizations, and campaign teams should closely monitor the growing influence of data analytics and predictive models. Understanding the electorate’s behavior, especially through digital platforms, is crucial for informed decision-making.
  • Adapt to changing media consumption: Political campaigns and organizations must adjust strategies to cater to the changing media consumption habits. Focusing on personalized, digital engagement rather than traditional media can better align with the evolving audience.
  • Prepare for potential shifts in favorability: Political strategists should prepare for the possibility of rapid shifts in voter favorability. Staying flexible and responsive to changes in public sentiment will be crucial in the final stretch of the campaign.
  • Engage across multiple platforms: Given the increasing reliance on social media for news consumption, it is vital for political campaigns to engage on various platforms, particularly those popular with younger demographics, such as TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube.
  • Monitor gerrymandering trends: Political reformers should continue to advocate for measures that reduce the impact of gerrymandering, ensuring fairer representation in Congress. Observing successful reforms could provide models for other states.
  • Think beyond 2024: Campaigns and analysts should begin planning for future elections, understanding the broader trajectory of media, technology, and voter behavior. 

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