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My Experience Working with Vladimir Putin

Speakers:
H.E. José Manuel Barroso, Former President, European Commission; Concordia Leadership Council Member
Mickey Bergman, Vice President and Executive Director, The Richardson Center for Global Engagement; Concordia Advisor
H.E. President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Former President, Republic of Croatia; Concordia Leadership Council Member

When we do not understand a leader’s motivation, we often discount them as irrational. The truth is, explained Mickey Bergman, Vice President & Executive Director of the Richardson Center for Global Excellence and Concordia Advisor, we rarely see all the calculations that go into their decisions. Bergman asked the audience to suspect judgment of good and evil for the purposes of discussing Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

Turning the discussion over to the panelists, H.E. José Manuel Barroso, Former President of the European Commission and Concordia Leadership Council Member, noted that he has met Putin upwards of 25 times. He explained his view that Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine now because he believed that the U.S. is weaker than it was when he took Crimea in 2014 and he has a greater control of Russian society. It was not, however, a good strategic decision. H.E. Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Former President of the Republic of Croatia and Concordia Leadership Council Member, recounted a story of having dinner with Putin. She asserted that he was likely provided wrong information, but that he also underestimated the ability of the Ukrianians to fight and did not anticipate the quick, unified response of the west.

Bergman asked about Putin’s ultimate objective. Barroso answered that he is acting neither as a chess or checkers player but as a poker player making risky moves. He has never accepted Ukraine as fully independent and sees himself as the leader who could make Russia great again. He resents Russia’s humiliation after the end of the Cold War. Grabar-Kitarović agreed that his main mission was to restore Russia’s power, standing in the world, and economy. She worried about Russia’s nefarious covert actions to destabilize other countries and noted that he is the type of person who would rather die than accept defeat. Bergman ended the discussion with an admonition that as we address the war in Ukraine, we must consider Putin’s mindset. We need to develop a strategy that pushes him to some extent but does not push him over the edge.

Key takeaways & next steps:

  • Vladimir Putin is a complicated leader whose motivations we do not fully understand. It seems likely that he was provided with wrong information about his ability to defeat Ukraine in a full-scale war.
  • Putin is driven at least in part by resentment over Russia’s humiliation at the end of the Cold War.

 

“What Putin wants is to make Russia great again.”

 

H.E. José Manuel Barroso, Former President, European Commission; Concordia Leadership Council Member

“The truth is, very rarely people are irrational. It’s just that we fail to understand everything that goes into their calculation.”

 

Mickey Bergman, Vice President & Executive Director, The Richardson Center for Global Engagement; Concordia Advisor

“He’s the kind of person who would rather die than accept defeat.”

 

President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović, Former President, Republic of Croatia; Concordia Leadership Council Member